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How Does Incarceration Affect Reoffending? Estimating the Dose-Response Function
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DOI：10.1086/716561.png)
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We study the causal effect of incarceration on reoffending using discontinuities in North Carolina's sentencing guidelines. A regression discontinuity analysis shows that 1 year of incarceration causes a reduction in the likelihood of being reincarcerated within 3, 5, and 8 years from sentencing by 44%, 29%, and 21%, respectively. To parse the potentially heterogeneous dose response relationship underlying these effects, we develop an econometric model of prison sentences and recidivism. We find that incarceration has meaningful reoffending-reducing average effects that diminish in incarceration length. As a result, budget-neutral reductions in sentence length combined with increases in incarceration rates can decrease recidivism.
Keyword:
MARGINAL POLICY CHANGES
INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES
SELECTION BIAS
CRIME
MODELS
PRISON
EMPLOYMENT
IDENTIFICATION
INCAPACITATION
RETURNS
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