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Ignorance Is Not Probability
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DOI：10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01361.x.png)
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摘要
En 中文
The distinction between ignorance about a parameter and knowing only a probability distribution for that parameter is of fundamental importance in risk assessment. Brief dialogs between a hypothetical decisionmaker and a risk assessor illustrate this point, showing that the distinction has real consequences. These dialogs are followed by a short exposition that places risk analysis in a decision-theoretic framework, describes the important elements of that framework, and uses these to shed light on Terje Aven's criticism of nonprobabilistic purely objective methods. Suggestions are offered concerning a more effective approach to evaluating those methods.
Keyword:
Decision theory
interval analysis
subjective probability
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期刊
IF:
3.3
论文数:
5.6K
被引数:
1.2W
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On the Need for Restricting the Probabilistic Analysis in Risk Assessments to Variability.png)
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