Improving Site-Dependent Wind Turbine Performance Prediction Accuracy Using Machine Learning

doi:10.1115/1.4053513

Improving Site-Dependent Wind Turbine Performance Prediction Accuracy Using Machine Learning

2022-03-01

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DOI：10.1115/1.4053513

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AbstractData-driven wind turbine performance predictions, such as power and loads, are important for planning and operation. Current methods do not take site-specific conditions such as turbulence intensity and shear into account, which could result in errors of up to 10%. In this work, four different machine learning models (k-nearest neighbors regression, random forest regression, extreme gradient boosting regression and artificial neural networks (ANN)) are trained and tested, first on a simulation dataset and then on a real dataset. It is found that machine learning methods that take site-specific conditions into account can improve prediction accuracy by a factor of two to three, depending on the error indicator chosen. Similar results are observed for multi-output ANNs for simulated in- and out-of-plane rotor blade tip deflection and root loads. Future work focuses on understanding transferability of results between different turbines within a wind farm and between different wind turbine types.

Improving Site-Dependent Wind Turbine Performance Prediction Accuracy Using Machine Learning

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