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Increase in MJO predictability under global warming
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DOI：10.1038/s41558-023-01885-0.png)
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The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a dominant source of subseasonal atmospheric variability in the tropics and significantly impacts global weather and climate predictability. Changes in its activity and predictability due to human-induced global climate change have profound implications for future global weather prediction. Here we investigate changes in MJO predictability in reanalysis and climate model data and find that MJO predictability has increased over the past century. This increase can be attributed to anthropogenic warming and continues during the twenty-first century in projections. The increased predictability is accompanied by stronger MJO amplitude, more regular oscillation patterns and organized eastward propagation under global warming. Our results suggest that greenhouse warming will increase the predictability of the MJO, with far-reaching consequences for global weather prediction. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a key feature of tropical weather on a multi-weekly timescale. Here, the authors show that the MJO becomes more predictable with climate change, potentially allowing better subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting.
Keyword:
MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION
PROPAGATION
VARIABILITY
EVOLUTION
PACIFIC
WEATHER
MODEL
期刊
IF:
27.1
论文数:
4.4K
被引数:
5.4W
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引用论文
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