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Inter-seasonal variability in predictability of South China seasonal precipitation
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DOI：10.1088/1748-9326/adc021.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
This study investigates the inter-seasonal variability of predictability limits (PLs) for South China seasonal precipitation (SCSP) using reanalysis data, emphasizing the crucial role of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) in modulating SCSP predictability through ENSO-driven processes. Incorporating the relative global attractor radius as the saturation threshold into the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent method to address SCSP's oscillatory error growth after saturation reveals that its PL peaks in winter (3.72 months) and drops to its lowest during the autumn (3.12 months). ENSO is identified as the primary source of SCSP predictability, with its PLs generally extending longer and exhibiting distinct inter-seasonal variability compared to those of SCSP. As a crucial system linking ENSO and SCSP, WNPAC mirrors with SCSP in both PLs' values and inter-seasonal variability. Physical analysis shows that seasonal shift in the WNPAC-ENSO relationship exerts a strong influence on SCSP predictability.
Keywords:
South China
seasonal precipitation
predictability limit
error growth dynamic
ENSO
the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone
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