Interpretable damage state-dependent fragility models for multi-hazard interactions based on Bayesian modeling and causal inference

Konstantinos Trevlopoulos

doi:10.1016/j.strusafe.2026.102713

Interpretable damage state-dependent fragility models for multi-hazard interactions based on Bayesian modeling and causal inference

2026-03-26

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Konstantinos Trevlopoulos *

P

Pierre Gehl

C

Caterina Negulescu

DOI：10.1016/j.strusafe.2026.102713

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• Bayesian fragility models for sequential earthquake–flood loadings. • Damage state–dependent models improve predictive power and reliability. • Period elongation is a key predictor of structural degradation. • Causal DAGs enable explainable and transparent multi-hazard modeling. • Supports scenario analysis and digital twin applications for resilience.

Keywords:

Bayesian fragility models

damage state-dependent models

multi-hazard interactions

causal inference

structural degradation

Interpretable damage state-dependent fragility models for multi-hazard interactions based on Bayesian modeling and causal inference

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