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Interpretable Machine Learning for Finding Intermediate-mass Black Holes
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DOI：10.3847/1538-4357/ad2261.png)
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摘要
En 中文
Definitive evidence that globular clusters (GCs) host intermediate-mass black holes (IMBHs) is elusive. Machine-learning (ML) models trained on GC simulations can in principle predict IMBH host candidates based on observable features. This approach has two limitations: first, an accurate ML model is expected to be a black box due to complexity; second, despite our efforts to simulate GCs realistically, the simulation physics or initial conditions may fail to reflect reality fully. Therefore our training data may be biased, leading to a failure in generalization to observational data. Both the first issue-explainability/interpretability-and the second-out of distribution generalization and fairness-are active areas of research in ML. Here we employ techniques from these fields to address them: we use the anchors method to explain an Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) classifier; we also independently train a natively interpretable model using Certifiably Optimal RulE ListS (CORELS). The resulting model has a clear physical meaning, but loses some performance with respect to XGBoost. We evaluate potential candidates in real data based not only on classifier predictions but also on their similarity to the training data, measured by the likelihood of a kernel density estimation model. This measures the realism of our simulated data and mitigates the risk that our models may produce biased predictions by working in extrapolation. We apply our classifiers to real GCs, obtaining a predicted classification, a measure of the confidence of the prediction, an out-of-distribution flag, a local rule explaining the prediction of XGBoost, and a global rule from CORELS.
Keyword:
STAR CLUSTER SIMULATIONS
SURVEY DATABASE I
MONTE-CARLO SIMULATIONS
HIGH-STAKES DECISIONS
GLOBULAR-CLUSTERS
MILKY-WAY
RUNAWAY COLLISIONS
NO EVIDENCE
MOCCA CODE
ASTROPHYSICAL IMPLICATIONS
期刊
IF:
5.4
论文数:
8.3W
被引数:
32.0W
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引用论文
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Formation of supermassive black holes in galactic nuclei - I. Delivering seed intermediate-mass black holes in massive stellar clusters银河核中超大质量黑洞的形成-I.在大质量恒星星团中提供种子中等质量黑洞
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