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Investigating Potential Benefits of Future Sub-L1 Missions With STEREO-A
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DOI：10.1029/2026SW005033.png)
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Abstract
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We present the first statistical study of geomagnetic storm forecasting using in situ data from the STEREO-A spacecraft as a sub-L1 monitor. Between November 2022 and June 2024, STEREO-A crossed the Sun–Earth line, covering longitudinal and radial separations of ±15° $\pm 15{}^{\circ}$ from the Sun–Earth line and 0.01–0.06 au from Earth. This passage provides a unique opportunity to assess future sub-L1 mission concepts by ESA, such as HENON and SHIELD. We identify 32 coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by both STEREO-A and L1 spacecraft. Eight of these 32 CME events are first detected at L1, indicating that radial spacecraft separations of up to ∼0.05 ${\sim} 0.05$ au do not always yield lead time advantages. Furthermore, we find greater (smaller) gains in lead time when STEREO-A is east (west) of the Sun–Earth line. We develop a baseline methodology for the use of future sub-L1 in situ data to enable time-shifting and real-time modeling of the geomagnetic SYM-H index. This is run continuously over the entire time period, therefore modeling the geomagnetic response of all solar wind structures. Our methodology is empirically motivated and should be considered a first approach in addressing the use of sub-L1 data. Following this methodology, 26 of 47 observed geomagnetic storms are correctly identified from STEREO-A data. Intense events (82%, SYM-H nT) are well detected, most of which are also associated with an identified CME event. Most SYM-H minima are predicted later (72%) and stronger (58%) than those observed due to biases introduced by our methodology.
Keywords:
future missions
sub-L1 monitoring
spacecraft formations
geomagnetic indices
geomagnetic storms
solar wind
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