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Large-ensemble generation based on mesoscale ensemble prediction system using machine learning
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DOI：10.1016/j.egyr.2025.109002.png)
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摘要
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• Large-ensemble predictions improve global irradiance forecast accuracy. • The ML-based large-ensemble generation (ML-LEG) model using stacking is developed. • The ML-LEG model learns to generate MEPS ensembles from the mesoscale MSM. • The proposed method generates a 420-member large-ensemble prediction. • The method cuts forecast error by 10.3% vs MSM and 4.0% vs MEPS on difficult days.
Keyword:
Solar power forecast
Numerical weather prediction
Ensemble prediction system
Machine learning
Day-ahead
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期刊
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IF:
5.1
论文数:
774
被引数:
0
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