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Measuring economic tail resilience to geoeconomic fragmentation shocks
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DOI：10.1016/j.frl.2026.110574.png)
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Abstract
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• Proposes a quantile local projection-based framework for assessing tail resilience. • Extends resilience measurement from the mean to distributional tails. • Estimates lower-tail resilience of economic growth to fragmentation shocks. • US lower-tail resilience declines structurally after the 2008 crisis. • Emerging economies show weaker and more heterogeneous lower-tail resilience.
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