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Model parameters and outbreak control for SARS

delete2004-07-01
delete173
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OA
AI
G
Gerardo Chowell
C
Carlos Castillo‐Chávez
P
Paul W. Fenimore
C
Christopher M. Kribs-Zaleta
L
Leon Arriola
J
James M. Hyman
DOI:10.3201/eid1007.030647delete
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摘要

摘要

En 中文
Control of the 2002-2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak was based on rapid diagnosis coupled with effective patient isolation. We used uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproductive number R-0 to assess the role that model parameters play in outbreak control. The transmission rate and isolation effectiveness have the largest fractional effect on R-0. We estimated the distribution of the reproductive number R-0 under perfect isolation conditions. The distribution lies in the interquartile range 0.19-1.08, with a median of 0.49. Even though the median of R-0 is <1, we found that 25% of our R-0 distribution lies at R-0 > 1, even with perfect isolation. This implies the need to simultaneously apply more than one method of control.
Keyword:
ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME
HONG-KONG
TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS
SENSITIVITY
UNCERTAINTY
EXAMPLE
AGENT
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期刊

Emerging Infectious Diseases 封面图
Emerging Infectious Diseases
IF:
6.6
论文数:
1.2W
被引数:
3.3W

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