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Multidimensional seismic fragility evaluation of slopes with multiple performance indicators under stochastic seismic ground motions
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DOI：10.1007/s11440-026-03174-4.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Seismic fragility evaluation is an essential part of slope-relevant geological disasters risk and resilience assessment, and also imperative for making action-oriented mitigation decisions. Classical slope fragility evaluation is always performed by a single slope performance indicator. To comprehensively consider different slope failure mechanisms and interrelationships between multiple slope performance indicators in slope seismic performance assessment, a novel multidimensional seismic fragility assessment method is proposed in this study. In this method, a stochastic ground motion model is firstly applied to simulate a set of seismic ground motions to quantify seismic randomness in slope site. A suite of numerical analyses of a generic slope model under the stochastic ground motions are performed to acquire multiple slope performance indicators, such as factor of safety (FOS), slope crest displacement (CD), and Newmark permanent displacement (NPD). Then, different multidimensional limit state functions are developed by the calculated FOS, CD, and NPD to comprehensively quantify slope stability, local, and overall damage conditions of the slope simultaneously. The developed multidimensional limit state functions are then combined with the probability density evolution theory to calculate slope conditional failure probabilities under seismic ground motions with different intensities. One-dimensional and multidimensional seismic fragility curves are finally constructed and compared for slope performance assessment. The results indicate that the selection of performance indicators and corresponding threshold values directly affect slope seismic fragility results. FOS prone to provide more conservative fragility assessment results than CD and NPD. All obtained multidimensional seismic fragility curves are distributed between the one-dimensional fragility curves, which indicates that the obtained multidimensional seismic fragility curves have ability to give more objective and reliable fragility assessment results because different failure mechanisms and performance requirement of slopes are considered.
Keywords:
Multidimensional seismic fragility
Performance indicators
Seismic reliability
Slope resilience
Stochastic ground motions
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