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Multiscale assessment reveals emission hotspots and synergistic pathway for carbon-neutral agri-food cold chains in China
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DOI：10.1016/j.envdev.2026.101480.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
The expansion of cold chain logistics (CCL) for fresh agricultural products intensifies conflicts with China's carbon neutrality goals. Although prior studies link CCL growth to greater emissions, comprehensive assessments across product categories and supply chain stages remain limited, especially regarding food loss and waste (FLW) impacts. Here, we develop a bottom-up framework quantifying China's agricultural CCL emissions at micro-stage, meso-chain, and macronational levels. Findings reveal its CCL emissions totaled 173.75 Mt CO2e in 2022, with equipment operations contributing 67.07%, of which 86.43% stems from transportation. Southern China's emissions tripled that of northern regions (133.22 vs. 40.54 Mt CO2e), driven by meat/ aquatic product composition rather than total agricultural output. Transport emissions derived mainly from fuel consistently exceed 50% of provincial CCL emissions, followed by consumptionstage emissions driven by FLW treatment. Regulating emission reduction rates shortens the carbon peak plateau and accelerates dual-carbon goals, but when China's CCL peaks before 2030 its carbon neutrality timeline stabilizes, and more stringent emission constraints may even eliminate the carbon peak inflection point. These findings provide a scientifically actionable framework for policymakers to design region- and product-specific decarbonization pathways.
Keywords:
Cold chain logistics
carbon emissions
Food loss and waste
carbon neutrality
China
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