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Nested forecast model comparisons: A new approach to testing equal accuracy

delete2015-05-01
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T
Todd E. Clark *
M
Michael W. McCracken
DOI:10.1016/j.jeconom.2014.06.016delete
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摘要

摘要

En 中文
We develop methods for testing whether, in a finite sample, forecasts from nested models are equally accurate. Most prior work has focused on a null of equal accuracy in population basically, whether the additional coefficients of the larger model are zero. Our asymptotic approximation instead treats the coefficients as non-zero but small, such that, in a finite sample, forecasts from the small and large models are expected to be equally accurate. We derive the limiting distributions of tests of equal mean square error, and develop a bootstrap for inference. Simulations show that our procedures have good size and power properties. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keyword:
Mean square error
Prediction
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Journal of Econometrics 封面图
Journal of Econometrics
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federal reserve system - usa
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