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Novel high-precision grey forecasting model
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DOI：10.1016/j.autcon.2007.02.004.png)
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Although the grey forecasting model has been successfully utilized in many fields and demonstrated promising results, literatures show its performance still could be improved. For this purpose, this paper proposes a novel forecasting model termed MFGMn(1,1). In this proposed model, this work modifies the algorithm of the grey forecasting model to enhance the tendency catching ability. Besides, Fourier series and Markov chain also integrated within MFGMn(1, 1) to model the system periodic and stochastic phenomenon for further improving the forecasting precision. Two practical cases, the typhoon rainfall events and steel price fluctuations, are adopted for demonstration. As shown in simulation results, the proposed model can increase the prediction accuracy. Particularly when the system is instable, MFGMn(1, 1) can effectively predict the system developing. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keyword:
Fourier series
grey forecasting model
Markov chain
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11.5
论文数:
6.3K
被引数:
4.2W
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