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On path correlation and PERT bias
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DOI：10.1016/j.ejor.2007.01.061.png)
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Most studies of project time estimation assume that (a) activity times are mutually independent random variables; many also assume that (b) path completion times are mutually independent. In this paper, we subject the impact of both these assumptions to close scrutiny. Using tools from multivariate analysis, we make a theoretical study of the direction of the error in the classical PERT method of estimating mean project completion time when correlation is ignored. We also investigate the effect of activity dependence on the normality of path length via simulation. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keyword:
project management
PERT
correlation
project networks
Slepian's inequality
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6
论文数:
2.2W
被引数:
6.4W
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