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On the nature of certainty in value-based evaluations: disentangling variability and extremity of experiences
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DOI：10.1098/rsos.251616.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Consistent value-based decision-making is crucial for outcomes such as maintaining a healthy lifestyle or being perceived as trustworthy. The certainty of evaluations of choice options is related to the consistency of value-based decisions, but its nature is poorly understood. Here, we examined how evaluation certainty is formed through the possibly unique contributions of 'variability' and 'value-extremity' of prior experiences with objects. We conducted a preregistered 2 & times; 2 within-subject experiment (n = 188) where variability and value-extremity of experiences with objects were manipulated independently. Participants learned value-distributions for objects, estimated their mean value and rated certainty in their evaluation. As predicted, results show that variability of experiences is negatively related to certainty, independent of value-extremity. Surprisingly, we find no evidence for a positive effect of value-extremity on evaluation certainty. These results point to the possibility that the previously observed relationship between value-extremity and evaluation certainty is the result of an ecological confound between variability and value-extremity of prior experiences.
Keywords:
evaluation confidence
value-based decisions
value-extremity
value-distributions
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