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Physics constrained pedestrian trajectory prediction with probability quantification
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AI
DOI：10.1016/j.eswa.2024.124743.png)
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摘要
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Accurately understanding and predicting the future trajectories of pedestrians around autonomous vehicles is a major challenge. Due to the uncertainty and diversity of pedestrian trajectories, current research focuses on the multimodality of trajectory prediction. Currently, multimodal pedestrian prediction methods mainly use deep generative networks to generate mutually independent trajectories through independent sampling strategy, thus focusing on modes with a large number of samples. Moreover, deep generative networks are black-box models that are entirely data-driven and cannot effectively explain trajectory generation. In addition, current research lacks an effective measure for each trajectory. Therefore, in our paper, we propose a physics constrained pedestrian trajectory prediction with probability quantification. We divide multimodal trajectory prediction into two phases: trajectory generation phase and trajectory selection phase. During the trajectory generation phase, rather than directly predicting trajectories, we incorporate a differential constraint module to ensure that the generated trajectories adhere to pedestrian motion laws. This approach enhances the interpretability of the model prediction process. Subsequently, we generate a set of candidate trajectory proposals with specific correlations through the correlated sampling module. During the trajectory selection phase, a probability selection module is proposed to establish explicit probability distributions for the candidate trajectory proposals and to select the proposal with the highest probability as the final output. Extensive experiments on a public real-world pedestrian trajectory dataset show that our proposed model exhibits significant advantages over existing models in multimodal trajectory prediction, which not only effectively reduces the error but also mitigates mode collapse. Moreover, we provide probabilities for each trajectory to better capture the model uncertainty and provide more comprehensive information for downstream decision-making systems.
Keyword:
Multimodal pedestrian prediction trajectory
Correlated sampling
Model interpretability
Probability-based metric
期刊
IF:
7.5
论文数:
3.0W
被引数:
10.2W
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