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Practical policy evaluation

delete2019-04-01
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Narayana Kocherlakota *
DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.01.009delete
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Abstract

Abstract

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In the wake of the Lucas (1976), the study of appropriate macroeconomic policy has largely focused on the comparison of different regimes/rules. In practice, few policymakers are faced with making those kinds of choices. I examine the problem of a policymaker making but one in a sequence of similar decisions. My main result is that the policymaker's optimal response to the current state can be found by applying regression methods to past macroeconomic data. I argue that macroeconomic policy evaluation intended to be of practical value should rely less on putatively structural macroeconomic models and more on regression -based approaches. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords:
Lucas Critique
Macroeconomic policy
Dynamic games
Macroeconometrics
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Journal

Journal of Monetary Economics cover
Journal of Monetary Economics
IF:
4.1
Papers:
3.2K
Citations:
1.1W

Organization

U
University of Rochester
Scholars:
2.6W
Papers: 2.1W
Citations: 2.2W