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Predicting intersection crash frequency using connected vehicle data: A framework for geographical random forest
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AI
DOI：10.1016/j.aap.2022.106880.png)
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Accurate crash frequency prediction is critical for proactive safety management. The emerging connected ve-hicles technology provides us with a wealth of vehicular motion data, which enables a better connection between crash frequency and driving behaviors. However, appropriately dealing with the spatial dependence of crash frequency and multitudinous driving features has been a difficult but critical challenge in the prediction process. To this end, this study aims to investigate a new Artificial Intelligence technique called Geographical Random Forest (GRF) that can address spatial heterogeneity and retain all potential predictors. By harnessing more than 2.2 billion high-resolution connected vehicle Basic Safety Message (BSM) observations from the Safety Pilot Model Deployment in Ann Arbor, MI, 30 indicators of driving volatility are extracted, including speed, longi-tudinal and lateral acceleration, and yaw rate. The developed GRF was implemented to predict rear-end crash frequency at intersections. The results show that: 1) rear-end crashes are more likely to happen at intersections connecting minor roads compared to major roads; 2) a higher number of hard acceleration and deceleration events beyond two standard deviations in the longitudinal direction is a leading indicator of rear-end crashes; 3) the optimal GRF significantly outperforms Global Random Forest, with a 9% lower test error and a substantially better fit; and 4) geographical visualization of variable importance highlights the presence of spatial non-stationarity. The proposed framework can proactively identify at-risk intersections and alert drivers when leading indicators of driving volatility tend to worsen.
Keyword:
Connected vehicle
Crash frequency prediction
Geographical random forest
Variable importance
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6.2
论文数:
7.6K
被引数:
3.2W
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