.png){kind=icon}
返回
Prediction Interval Estimation and Deterministic Forecasting Model Using Ground-Based Sky Image
.png){kind=icon}
PRE
AI
DOI：10.1109/TIA.2022.3218273.png)
.png){kind=icon}
原文求助.png){kind=icon}
分享.png){kind=icon}
收藏
摘要
En 中文
Due to the explosive penetration of photovoltaic (PV) systems in the power grid, accurate and well-informed solar PV power forecasting has become exceptionally crucial, while accurate irradiance prediction is the basis of PV power forecasting. Yet most research on PV power/irradiance forecasting focus on deterministic forecasting, whereas it is difficult to express the credibility of the forecasting results, especially in the scene of instantaneous fluctuation of irradiance and photovoltaic power caused by cloud movement. Therefore, in order to accurately estimate and track the rapid fluctuations of solar irradiance, this paper takes the ground-based sky image information into consideration and obtains the probability-level prediction results along with the deterministic point forecasting, proposes a comprehensive evaluation function constructed with the average coverage and the average width as the fitness function to assist in the optimization of the deterministic forecasting results, and then constructs a three-output model, naming it DenLUBE. In addition, a framework for irradiance variation pattern prediction is proposed to provide pattern information for the forecasting time period to further improve the performance of the ultra-short-term forecasting model. The results show that the proposed model can achieve high quality and strongly robust deterministic forecasting results while producing tight prediction intervals independent of weather conditions. In addition, the performance of our model is greatly enhanced compared to the traditional approach of taking the middle position of the interval as the deterministic forecasting result, as well as other benchmark models.
Keyword:
Deterministic forecasting
lower and upper bound estimation
prediction intervals
sky image
solar irradiance
期刊
IF:
4.5
论文数:
1.1W
被引数:
3.5W
机构
引用论文
.png){kind=icon}
Accurate reactive power control of autonomous microgrids using an adaptive virtual inductance loop基于自适应虚拟电感环的自治微电网精确无功控制
PREAI
分享收藏A Self-Adjusting Droop Control Strategy to Improve Reactive Power Sharing in Islanded Microgrid一种改善孤岛微网无功均分的自调整下垂控制策略
PREAI
分享收藏分享收藏Multi-Layer Architecture for Voltage and Frequency Control in Networked Microgrids网络化微电网电压和频率控制的多层体系结构
PREAI
分享收藏Review of Power Sharing Control Strategies for Islanding Operation of AC Microgrids交流微电网孤岛运行功率均分控制策略综述
OAAI
OAAI分享收藏
查看更多内容