.png){kind=icon}
返回
Probabilistic Stabilization Targets
.png){kind=icon}
PRE
AI
DOI：10.1086/691687.png)
.png){kind=icon}
原文求助.png){kind=icon}
分享.png){kind=icon}
收藏
摘要
En 中文
We study stabilization targets: common environmental policy recommendations that specify a maximum probability of an environmental variable exceeding a fixed target (e.g., limit climate change to at most 2 degrees C above pre-industrial). Previous work generally considers stabilization targets under certainty equivalence. Using an integrated assessment model with uncertainty about the sensitivity of the temperature to greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations (the climate sensitivity), learning, and random weather shocks, we calculate the optimal GHG emissions policy with and without stabilization targets. We characterize the range of feasible targets and show that the climate is difficult to control in the short run, although as learning resolves the planner eventually achieves the target with a sustained reduction in emissions over time. We find that uncertainty exacerbates the welfare cost of stabilization targets. First, the targets are inflexible and do not adjust to new information about the climate system. Second, the target forces the emissions policy to overreact to transient shocks. These effects are present only in a model with uncertainty. Introduction of a stabilization target into the baseline model with uncertainty results in a welfare loss of 4.7%, which is 66% higher than the cost of introducing the target in the certainty version of the model.
Keyword:
Climate change
Learning
Probabilistic stabilization targets
Stabilization targets
Uncertainty
AI总结
对已上传原文的论文进行重点信息的提取，主要内容包括：简要概述、研究摘要、背景介绍、关键亮点、图文解析、展望与总结。
期刊
J
IF:
3.2
论文数:
421
被引数:
1.9K
机构
引用论文
分享收藏Efficient climate policies under technology and climate uncertainty技术和气候不确定性下的有效气候政策.png)
ENERGY ECONOMICS
ENERGY ECONOMICSIF14.2
PREAI
分享收藏Trifluoromethylated Internal Alkynes: Versatile Building Blocks for the Preparation of Various Fluorine-Containing MoleculesSynlett
SynlettIF0
PREAI
分享收藏分享收藏
查看更多内容