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Processing tomato production is expected to decrease by 2050 due to the projected increase in temperature
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DOI：10.1038/s43016-022-00521-y.png)
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摘要
En 中文
The global production of processing tomatoes is concentrated in a small number of regions where climate change could have a notable impact on the future supply. Process-based tomato models project that the production in the main producing countries (the United States, Italy and China, representing 65% of global production) will decrease 6% by 2050 compared with the baseline period of 1980-2009. The predicted reduction in processing tomato production is due to a projected increase in air temperature. Under an ensemble of projected climate scenarios, California and Italy might not be able to sustain current levels of processing tomato production due to water resource constraints. Cooler producing regions, such as China and the northern parts of California, stand to improve their competitive advantage. The projected environmental changes indicate that the main growing regions of processing tomatoes might change in the coming decades. The projected increase in temperature will decrease processing tomato production in the three main producing countries by 2050. Temperature increases and water resource constraints in the future might change the main processing tomato growing regions and shift the value chain in the coming decades.
Keyword:
WATER-USE EFFICIENCY
CLIMATE-CHANGE
MODEL
IRRIGATION
NITROGEN
YIELD
WHEAT
IMPROVEMENT
STRATEGIES
CALIFORNIA
期刊
IF:
21.9
论文数:
1.4K
被引数:
1.0W
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