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Projecting bird assemblage responses to climate-driven changes in managed boreal forest landscapes of Quebec
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DOI：10.1016/j.biocon.2024.110956.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Climate change presents a major threat to biodiversity, particularly in northern ecosystems. This study investigates the impacts of climate change and forest management on bird species assemblages in the boreal forests of Quebec over the 2020-2100 horizon. Using spatially explicit simulations of forest landscapes and empirical abundance models for 73 bird species, we examined shifts in bird species distributions and habitat changes under various climate scenarios. Our findings highlight a range of sensitivity among bird assemblages across latitude. Results indicate that species associated with boreal coniferous and mixed forests are at greater risk of population decline, especially in southern regions, compared to more generalist species, which showed greater adaptability to changing conditions. The study incorporated the effects of wildfire, demonstrating its significant influence on bird distribution shifts along an east-west axis. Notably, increases in wildfires, especially in the northwest of the study area, may drive northwestward shifts of species associated with human-temperate forests, which can benefit from landscapes dominated by younger stands and pioneer tree species. Additionally, results show that climate change, directly and indirectly via increased wildfires, is the primary driver of habitat shifts for bird species, with its relative contribution projected to exceed forest management impacts by 2100. This research underscores the necessity of integrating disturbance regimes and comprehensive habitat modeling to better predict and manage climate change impacts on avian biodiversity in boreal ecosystems. Our results suggest that targeted conservation actions will be crucial for mitigating future climate-driven distribution shifts and population declines of boreal birds.
Keywords:
Abundance shifts
Boreal Forest
Climate change
Change drivers
Landis-II
Species distributions
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