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Invasibility, the chance of a population to grow from rarity and become established, plays a fundamental role in population genetics, ecology, epidemiology and evolution. For many decades, the mean growth rate of a species when it is rare has been employed as an invasion criterion. Recent studies show that the mean growth rate fails as a quantitative metric for invasibility, with its magnitude sometimes even increasing while the invasibility decreases. Here we provide two novel formulae, based on the diffusion approximation and a large-deviations (Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin) approach, for the chance of invasion given the mean growth and its variance. The first formula has the virtue of simplicity, while the second one holds over a wider parameter range. The efficacy of the formulae, including their accompanying data analysis technique, is demonstrated using synthetic time series generated from canonical models and parameterised with empirical data.
Keyword:
coexistence
community dynamics
demographic stochasticity
environmental stochasticity
extinction risk
invasibility
lottery model
stability
stabilising mechanisms
storage effect
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IF:
7.9
论文数:
4.4K
被引数:
4.0W
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收藏Mean growth rate when rare is not a reliable metric for persistence of speciesEcology LettersOAAI
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