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Quantifying tax effects under policy foresight
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DOI：10.1016/j.jmoneco.2004.09.003.png)
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Studies of tax effects make the conventional information assumption that changes in period-t taxes become known at t. Legislative lags, however, imply that news arrives before tax changes take place. Under policy foreknowledge, the conventional information structure is therefore misspecified. Simulations of a standard neoclassical growth model suggest that foresight of only one quarter can distort substantially the estimates of tax effects obtained under the no-foresight assumption. Also, it is crucial to model capital and labor taxes separately: anticipated changes in these two tax policies have opposite effects on consumption, investment, labor, and output before policy realization. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keyword:
tax policy
fiscal policy
policy foresight
time-series models
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4.1
论文数:
3.2K
被引数:
1.1W
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