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Rapid decline of ice thickness across Finnish lakes
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DOI：10.1016/j.jag.2026.105293.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
The complex relationship between lake ice thickness (LIT) and its environmental drivers, along with the high cost of in-situ measurements and the limited historic resolution of satellite observations-which also carries considerable uncertainties-makes precise regional-scale LIT modeling particularly challenging. To address this, we propose a black-box modeling approach that incorporates a novel parameter: freezing-days (FDs), derived from widely available air temperature data. Using this method, we project future LIT trends across 40 Finnish lakes. We also determine the historical LIT range to which aquatic species have adapted. Compared to the well-established Stefan model, our modeling approach enhances LIT estimation accuracy, achieving a 35% increase in the coefficient of determination and a 38% reduction in the mean absolute error in the validation phase. Our results indicate rapid declines in LIT, with projected reductions of 32% under SSP4.5 and 44% under SSP8.5 by 2100. Under SSP4.5, LIT variability is expected to exceed historical ranges in northern, central, and southern Finland by 2058, 2076, and 2098, respectively. In both emission scenarios, northern lakes are projected to cross this threshold by the 2050s, suggesting an ecological tipping point, regardless of future warming levels. These findings highlight the vulnerability of lake ice ecosystems to climate change and offer critical insights for developing adaptation strategies in a warming Arctic-boreal region. Our proposed model suggests a more accurate, widely applicable alternative for the study of LIT changes across spatial and temporal scales.
Keywords:
Lake ice thickness
Climate change
Freezing-days
Ecological tipping point
Finnish lakes
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