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Reshaping pluvial flood patterns in Shanghai: a century of land use change and subsidence
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DOI：10.1007/s10113-026-02651-6.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Urban pluvial flooding increasingly threatens sustainable urban development, yet its century-scale evolution under multiple interacting drivers remains poorly understood. This study reconstructs land-use and land subsidence in Shanghai’s central urban area (1921–2021) and combines hydrodynamic simulations with factor separation analysis under a 100-year design storm to quantify how urbanization and subsidence have reshaped inundation patterns. Our results show (1) total inundated area more than doubled, reaching 132.6 km2, and spatial heterogeneity in flood depth increased fourfold. (2) Land-use change dominated flood expansion, accounting for > 86% of the increase during rapid urbanization (1980s–2000s), consistent with a persistent “lock-in” effect whereby impervious-surface expansion produces long-lasting, hard-to-reverse changes in runoff generation and routing. (3) The contribution of land subsidence peaked in 1960s (≈ 28%), leading to the formation of localized deep-inundation hotspots that remain evident today. (4) Driver dominance shifted over time, with land-use change controlling flood-area expansion during rapid urbanization and land subsidence exerting stronger influence during periods of severe ground deformation. Overall, present-day pluvial flood risk in subsiding megacities is shaped by the compounded legacy of impervious-surface lock-in and long-term land subsidence, underscoring the need to integrate resilience-oriented spatial planning with adaptive drainage management.
Keywords:
Pluvial flooding
Land-use change
Land subsidence
Long-term evolution
Hydrodynamic modeling
Shanghai
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