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Reward Magnitude Modulates the Near-miss Effect: Insights from ERP and Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling
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DOI：10.1016/j.biopsycho.2026.109329.png)
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Abstract
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• The study identifies reward magnitude as a critical contextual factor that modulates the intensity of the near-miss effect. • Feedback-related negativity (FRN) distinguished near misses from full misses only under medium and high reward conditions, reflecting context-dependent neural evaluation. • Near misses consistently elicited smaller P300 amplitudes than full misses across all reward magnitudes, likely due to increased perceptual equivocation. • Near misses triggered stronger counterfactual thinking tendency, counterfactual thinking intensity, regret, and gambling motivation compared to full misses, regardless of reward magnitude. • Bayesian hierarchical modeling revealed that individual variations in self-blame predict the magnitude of the P300 near-miss effect.
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