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Risk and complexity - on complex risk management
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DOI：10.1108/JRF-09-2019-0165.png)
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摘要
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Purpose Industries lament the current situation of approaches that have resulted in huge losses in the face of complex risks. The purpose of this study is therefore to review complexity theory in the context of risk management so that it is possible to research better approaches for managing complex risks. Design/methodology/approach The approach is to review complexity theory and highlight those aspects of complexity theory that have relevance for risk management. Then, the paper ends with a discussion on what direction of research that will be most promising for the aforementioned purpose. Findings The paper finds that the most challenging aspect is to identify the weak signals, and this implies that the current approaches of estimating probabilities are not going to produce the desired results. Big data may hold a solution in the future, but with legislation such as the General Data Protection Regulation, this seems impossible to implement on ethical grounds. Hence, the most prudent approach is to use a margin of safety as advocated by Graham roughly 70 years ago. Indeed, the approach may be to assume that a disaster will take place and use risk management tools to estimate the impact for a given object. Originality/value The main contribution of the paper is to bring complexity theory more into the domain of risk management with sufficient details that should allow researchers to get conceptual ideas about what might work or not concerning complex risk management. If nothing else, it would be a significant contribution of the paper if it could help increasing the interest in complexity theory.
Keyword:
Uncertainty
Emergence
Insurance industry
Enterprise risk management
Margin of safety
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4.7
论文数:
200
被引数:
1.1K
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