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Scenario Planning for Transformative Climate Adaptation
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DOI：10.1002/wcc.70084.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
In recent years, major assessments of climate adaptation have taken stock of the status of actions across the globe. The findings point to fundamental challenges: adaptations so far have largely been incremental and piecemeal, with a focus on the short term, and inadequate to address current adaptation goals at scale, much less the needs for adaptation under intensifying climate change. Here, we critique a range of options, drawing from scenario-planning processes across fields and decision-making contexts, to move from the status quo of adaptation to more transformative approaches. Complementary entry points for scenario planning span quantitative and qualitative methods of scenario construction, community-led and institutionally specific planning processes, and analyses of response options, future visions and goals, and pathways towards them. This diversity of scenario planning sheds light on approaches that could enable more transformative adaptation. Leading practices challenge norms and support participant learning and psychological acceptance of transformed futures. They also connect the “what”—goals for adaptation and possible desired futures—with the “how”—iterative, flexible pathways of adjustment to get there. This combination creates a basis to evaluate gaps between the status quo and the policies, regulatory standards, and programs needed to achieve desired adaptation goals, and it simultaneously supports targets for motivating and evaluating progress. Effective scenario planning must have mechanisms for implementation and sustained monitoring, learning, and adjustments. Our analysis supports both policymakers looking to scale climate adaptation and researchers grappling with the limits of current empirical understanding in creating actionable science for adaptation needs.
Keywords:
climate adaptation
decision making under uncertainty
participatory methods
scenario planning
transformation
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