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Selective migration and regional decline: Evidence from coal country
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DOI：10.1016/j.jue.2026.103858.png)
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Abstract
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Why do regions decline? This paper explores how adverse shocks in one period affect regional adjustment to subsequent shocks, emphasizing the role of selective migration. I leverage differential exposure to coal’s decline and variation in proximity to historical employment shifts to study this process of regional decline in Appalachia. The consequences of the 2007–2017 coal shock were more acute in counties that experienced larger declines in college-educated adults due to exogenous labor demand shifts in the 1980s. These findings indicate that the adverse effects of shocks can accumulate over time, leaving certain regions differentially vulnerable to new challenges.
Keywords:
regional decline
selective migration
coal industry
labor demand shifts
Appalachia
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