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Sensitivity of simulated storm surge to tropical cyclone wind forcing around islands: Insights from Hurricane Irma
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DOI：10.1016/j.ocemod.2026.102780.png)
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Abstract
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• Hurricane Irma (2017) generated extreme storm surges over Barbuda and Saint Martin. • Challenges in surge modelling arise from uncertainties in TC characterisation. • Surge amplitude is very sensitive to wind intensity, stress parametrisation and track. • TC wind structure (eyewall radius, wind gradients) strongly controls surge duration. • ERA5 strongly underestimates surge unlike observation-fitted parametric forcing.
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