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Significance tests harm progress in forecasting
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DOI：10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.03.004.png)
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摘要
En 中文
I briefly summarize prior research showing that tests of statistical significance are improperly used even in leading scholarly journals. Attempts to educate researchers to avoid pitfalls have had little success. Even when done properly, however, statistical significance tests are of no value. Other researchers have discussed reasons for these failures. I was unable to find empirical evidence to support the use of significance tests under any conditions. I then show that tests of statistical significance are harmful to the development of scientific knowledge because they distract the researcher from the use of proper methods. I illustrate the dangers of significance tests by examining a re-analysis of the W-Competition. Although the authors of the reanalysis conducted a proper series of statistical tests, they suggested that the original W-Competition was not justified in concluding that combined forecasts reduce errors, and that the selection of the best method is dependent on the selection of a proper error measure. I show that the original conclusions were correct. Authors should avoid tests of statistical significance; instead, they should report on effect sizes, confidence intervals, replications/extensions, and meta-analyses. Practitioners should ignore significance tests and journals should discourage them. (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of International Institute of Forecasters.
Keyword:
accuracy measures
combining forecasts
confidence intervals
effect size
M-competition
meta-analysis
null hypothesis
practical significance
replications
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论文数:
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被引数:
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