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Statistical model building: Background knowledge based on inappropriate preselection causes misspecification
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DOI：10.1186/s12874-021-01373-z.png)
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Background Statistical model building requires selection of variables for a model depending on the model's aim. In descriptive and explanatory models, a common recommendation often met in the literature is to include all variables in the model which are assumed or known to be associated with the outcome independent of their identification with data driven selection procedures. An open question is, how reliable this assumed background knowledge truly is. In fact, known predictors might be findings from preceding studies which may also have employed inappropriate model building strategies. Methods We conducted a simulation study assessing the influence of treating variables as known predictors in model building when in fact this knowledge resulting from preceding studies might be insufficient. Within randomly generated preceding study data sets, model building with variable selection was conducted. A variable was subsequently considered as a known predictor if a predefined number of preceding studies identified it as relevant. Results Even if several preceding studies identified a variable as a true predictor, this classification is often false positive. Moreover, variables not identified might still be truly predictive. This especially holds true if the preceding studies employed inappropriate selection methods such as univariable selection. Conclusions The source of background knowledge should be evaluated with care. Knowledge generated on preceding studies can cause misspecification.
Keyword:
Background knowledge
Univariable selection
Backward elimination
Variable selection
Regression model
Simulation study
Need for more data sharing
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