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“Super-progenitor” species and the distribution of sampled descendants
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DOI：10.1017/pab.2025.10083.png)
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Abstract
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The patterns by which ancestral species give rise to descendants offer critical insights into the processes governing evolutionary and ecological change through time. One such pattern; predicted by both theoretical models and empirical studies; is the persistence of long-lived ancestral species that give rise to multiple descendants. While models such as the birth–death process long employed by paleobiologists predict the occurrence of such “super-progenitors; ” the extent to which they should appear in fossil clades remains unknown. To address this; I apply a birth–death-sampling model to four marine clades to evaluate the expected prevalence of super-progenitors and the distribution of sampled descendants. I also explore through analytical and simulation-based predictions how variation in preservation; turnover; and net diversification rate influences these expectations. The model predicts that super-progenitors should be common across nearly all of the clades examined; provided that sampling completeness exceeds approximately 50% at the taxon level. Although the threshold excludes some poorly sampled terrestrial groups; my findings suggest that super-progenitors should be expected across a broad array of clades. Continued integration of super-progenitors into phylogenetic inference and models of diversification may thus contribute to a more complete understanding of macroevolutionary pattern and process.
Keywords:
super-progenitor
birth–death-sampling model
fossil clades
diversification rate
phylogenetic inference
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