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Testing and Quantifying Economic Resilience

delete2026-09-23
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OA
AI
N
Naoko Hara
Y
Yohei Yamamoto *
DOI：10.1111/jors.70098delete
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摘要

摘要

En 中文
评估经济是否回归危机前增长路径是研究经济韧性的核心，但标准计量工具难以应用于全球危机：它们需要未受影响的经济体作为控制组，且在数据存在结构断裂时估计持续性易产生偏差。我们开发了一种正式检验程序，通过仅利用危机前数据构建反事实无危机轨迹并比较实际路径与预测区间，克服了上述两个局限。在此基础上，我们提出了两个无量纲指标：冲击吸收能力和累积恢复能力。将此框架应用于18个发达OECD经济体的实际GDP，我们发现大多数经济体未能抵御全球金融危机，但能从COVID-19中强劲恢复，后者结合了更深的谷底与更快的反弹。这些对比事件表明，韧性并非由单一决定因素主导，而取决于危机的性质。
Keyword:
adverse economic shock
counterfactual forecast
COVID-19 pandemic
global financial crisis
structural change
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期刊

Journal of Regional Science 封面图
Journal of Regional Science
IF:
2.7
论文数:
2.2K
被引数:
3.2K

机构

H
hitotsubashi university
学者数:
18
论文数: 18
被引数: 0
S
seikei university
学者数:
2
论文数: 3
被引数: 0
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