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The conditional expected market return

delete2020-09-01
delete29
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C
Chabi-Yo, Fousseni *
J
Johnathan Loudis
DOI:10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.03.009delete
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摘要

摘要

En 中文
We derive lower and upper bounds on the conditional expected excess market return that are related to risk-neutral volatility, skewness, and kurtosis indexes. The bounds can be calculated in real time using a cross section of option prices. The bounds require a no-arbitrage assumption, but they do not depend on distributional assumptions about market returns or past observations. The bounds are highly volatile, positively skewed, and fat-tailed. They imply that the term structure of expected excess holding period returns is decreasing during turbulent times and increasing during normal times and that the expected excess market return is on average 5.2%. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keyword:
Equity risk premium
Risk-neutral moments
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期刊

Journal of Financial Economics 封面图
Journal of Financial Economics
IF:
12
论文数:
3.8K
被引数:
5.5W

机构

U
university of massachusetts system
学者数:
3.9W
论文数: 3.6W
被引数: 42
U
University of Massachusetts Amherst
学者数:
1.1W
论文数: 8.9K
被引数: 19
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