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The conditional expected market return
DOI:10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.03.009.png)
摘要
En 中文
We derive lower and upper bounds on the conditional expected excess market return that are related to risk-neutral volatility, skewness, and kurtosis indexes. The bounds can be calculated in real time using a cross section of option prices. The bounds require a no-arbitrage assumption, but they do not depend on distributional assumptions about market returns or past observations. The bounds are highly volatile, positively skewed, and fat-tailed. They imply that the term structure of expected excess holding period returns is decreasing during turbulent times and increasing during normal times and that the expected excess market return is on average 5.2%. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keyword:
Equity risk premium
Risk-neutral moments
Preferences
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期刊
IF:
12
论文数:
3.8K
被引数:
5.5W
机构
引用论文
Nonlinear pricing kernels, kurtosis preference, and evidence from the cross section of equity returns
JOURNAL OF FINANCE
IF9.5

