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The Manticore Project I: a digital twin of our cosmic neighbourhood from Bayesian field-level analysis
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DOI：10.1093/mnras/staf767.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
We present the first results from the Manticore Project, dubbed Manticore-Local, a suite of Bayesian constrained simulations of the nearby Universe, generated by fitting a physical structure formation model to the 2M++ galaxy catalogue using the borg algorithm. This field-level inference yields physically consistent realizations of cosmic structure, leveraging a non-linear gravitational solver, a refined galaxy bias model, and physics-informed priors. The Manticore-Local posterior realizations evolve within a parent cosmological volume statistically consistent with Lambda-cold dark matter, demonstrated through extensive posterior predictive tests of power spectra, bispectra, initial condition Gaussianity, and the halo mass function. The inferred local supervolume (R < 200 Mpc, or z less than or similar to 0.05) shows no significant deviation from cosmological expectations; notably, we find no evidence for a large local underdensity, with the mean density suppressed by only approximate to 5per cent relative to the cosmic mean. Our model identifies high-significance counterparts for 14 prominent galaxy clusters - including Virgo, Coma, and Perseus - each within 1 deg of its observed sky position. Across the posterior ensemble, these counterparts are consistently detected with 2 sigma-4 sigma significance, and their reconstructed masses and redshifts agree closely with observational estimates, confirming the inference's spatial and dynamical fidelity. The peculiar velocity field recovered by Manticore-Local achieves the highest Bayesian evidence across five independent data sets, surpassing state-of-the-art non-linear models, linear theory, Wiener filtering, and machine learning approaches. Unlike methods yielding only point estimates or using simplified dynamics, Manticore-Local provides a full Bayesian posterior over cosmic structure and evolution, enabling rigorous uncertainty quantification. These results establish Manticore-Local as the most advanced constrained realization suite of the local Universe to date, offering a robust statistical foundation for future studies of galaxy formation, velocity flows, and environmental dependencies in our cosmic neighbourhood.
Keywords:
galaxies: clusters: general
galaxies: distances and redshifts
large-scale structure of Universe
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