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The Moderates
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DOI：10.1017/S0003055424001333.png)
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Many Americans express a mix of conservative and liberal views across issues. Prior research indicates these voters are cross-pressured. A recent, influential article Moderates (Fowler et al. 2023) argues that these voters instead largely have centrist views on individual issues. To reach this conclusion, Moderates develops a method to determine which voters' views are well-summarized by liberal-conservative ideology. Moderates finds that most voters' views are. It therefore concludes that the large number of such voters with centrist estimated ideologies-moderates-must hold centrist views on issues. We show that this method systematically overstates how many voters' views are well-summarized by liberal-conservative ideology: it assumes voters' views are unless they either answer questions randomly or form a single cluster with distinctive views. In simulations, we show this problem is large. The article's core conclusion that many voters who express a mix of conservative and liberal views can be inferred to support centrist policies therefore remains in doubt.
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