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The Role of Droughts in Modulating Hailstorm Dynamics in Alberta, Canada
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DOI：10.1175/JHM-D-25-0105.1.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Hailstorms pose serious risks to agriculture, infrastructure, and urban systems, yet their interactions with drought remain poorly understood. Drought can influence convective environments by altering surface heating, moisture availability, and atmospheric stability, potentially modulating hail frequency and intensity. This study investigates these relationships in Alberta using radar-derived vertically integrated liquid water content (VIL) as a proxy for hail size and ERA5 reanalysis data. Drought conditions are characterized using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index at short-, intermediate-, and long-term scales. Composite analyses suggest that short-and intermediate-term droughts enhance early season (May-June) hail intensity at lower VIL quantiles, consistent with increased surface heating and atmospheric instability. In contrast, prolonged droughts suppress late-season (August-September) hail activity as soil moisture depletion limits convective development. Convective available potential energy (CAPE) analysis further indicates that instability is generally lower in dry years, reducing convective potential and hailstorm severity, while nondry years exhibit a wider CAPE distribution, supporting more intense convective storms. These results highlight the role of antecedent drought conditions in modulating storm dynamics and suggest that different drought durations exert distinct influences on hail severity. The findings provide new insights into compound drought-hail interactions, with implications for seasonal forecasting and climate adaptation in hail-prone regions.
Keywords:
Climate variability
Hail
Statistics
Uncertainty
Adaptation
Drought
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