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Tropical Pacific teleconnection to Southwestern US precipitation in the historical observations and climate change projections
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DOI：10.1007/s00382-026-08332-8.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Seasonal precipitation over the Southwestern United States (SWUS) has been historically linked to Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases. However, the strength and spatial expression of this teleconnection vary over time, and ENSO does not always produce the expected canonical precipitation response. Precipitation anomalies opposite to those predicted by the canonical ENSO signal are referred to as heretical; atmospheric rivers play an important role in these unexpected outcomes. This study evaluates how well CMIP6 models represent the historical ENSO-SWUS precipitation teleconnection (ESP Teleconnection) and explores its possible future variability under climate change. Using observations and CMIP6 simulations, we analyze correlations between December Niño3.4 SST anomalies and January–March precipitation. The temporal variability of the ESP Teleconnection is examined based on 31-year running window correlations and compared with stochastic envelopes derived from synthetic time series. Observations show that the ESP Teleconnection operates intermittently, being strongest around 1970–2000, weakest before 1950, and weakening again in recent decades, consistent with stochastic sampling variability. CMIP6 models reproduce a wide range of ESP Teleconnection strengths, within the stochastic variability envelopes, but most simulations overrepresent the canonical ENSO influence on SWUS precipitation. Although heretical winters might be underrepresented in models, their occurrence, as in observations, is often associated with anomalous atmospheric river activity. Future projections do not indicate a robust strengthening or weakening of the ESP Teleconnection across models; even models that capture the observed range of historical variability show divergent futures.
Keywords:
Seasonal precipitation
ENSO
Sea surface temperature
Atmospheric rivers
Southwestern US
CMIP6
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