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Using AIto model future societal instability

delete2025-02-01
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OA
AI
F
Fanqi Zeng
G
Grant Blank
R
Ralph Schroeder *
DOI：10.1016/j.futures.2025.103543delete
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摘要

摘要

En 中文
本文构建了一个旨在精准识别多个国家未来面临的结构性约束及其可能引发的动荡的模型。该模型利用现有数据集，并基于历史模式将主要趋势外推至未来数十年。与Turchin等人的危机预测相反，本文认为更可能的情景是国家在应对财政约束（这些约束限制了政府收入以应对不断增长的社会支出）方面的能力日益下降。研究基于美国、瑞典、印度和中国四国的四维度比较。这四个案例为比较历史分析和预测提供了广泛的可能性。在最可能的情景下，劳动力人口萎缩将导致中国出现支出危机，并在其他国家引发社会紧张局势。本文有三个贡献：第一，为Turchin关于美国及其他地区政治危机的预测提供了替代方案；第二，将社会不稳定的预测扩展至富裕西方国家之外；第三，展示了如何利用AI工具将我们的模型与Turchin的模型进行比较。
Keyword:
AI
Social forecasting
Societal dynamics
Crisis
Data-driven modeling
Large language models
AI总结

AI总结

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期刊

Futures 封面图
Futures
IF:
3.8
论文数:
3.5K
被引数:
6.6K

机构

U
Univ Oxford
学者数:
3.4K
论文数: 1.9K
被引数: 986
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