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Weakened relationship of the monopole pattern of spring extreme heat events over mid-to-high latitude Eurasia with winter North Pacific tripolar sea surface temperature anomalies after the late 1990s
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DOI：10.1007/s00382-026-08333-7.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
In mid-to-high latitude Eurasia, a monopole pattern is the dominant spatial characteristic of interannual variations in spring extreme heat events (EHEs). This study reveals the spring monopole EHEs pattern has an attenuating relationship with the preceding winter tripolar sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the North Pacific around the late 1990s. Analysis of observations and Atmospheric model intercomparison project (AMIP) simulations indicates that such a change may be due to the weakened intensity and persistence of the winter North Pacific tripolar SST anomalies. Before the late 1990s, the winter North Pacific tripolar SST anomalies influence the spring monopole EHEs pattern through the stratospheric and tropospheric pathways. In the stratospheric pathway, the North Pacific tripolar SST anomalies effectively suppress the upward propagation of planetary waves from winter to spring, consequently favoring a strong stratospheric Arctic vortex (SAV) in spring. The anomalous tropospheric circulations over Eurasia driven by the downward influence of SAV promote the formation of spring monopole EHEs pattern. In the tropospheric pathway, the winter North Pacific tripolar SST anomalies could persist well into spring, exciting a tropospheric wave train propagating eastward to Eurasia and thus exerting effects on the spring monopole EHEs pattern. After the late 1990s, along with the weakened intensity and duration, the SST-induced signals diminish rapidly after winter, and therefore the aforementioned stratospheric and tropospheric pathways are ineffective. Consequently, there is a weakened relationship between the winter North Pacific tripolar SST anomalies and the spring Eurasian EHEs in recent two decades.
Keywords:
Spring extreme heat events
Mid-to-high latitude Eurasia
North Pacific sea surface temperature
Stratospheric and tropospheric pathways
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