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Why do accruals predict earnings?
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DOI：10.1016/j.jacceco.2018.12.003.png)
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Higher accruals are associated with lower subsequent earnings. We show this phenomenon can be explained by the way sales, profits, and working capital respond to changes in a firm's product markets. Empirically, high accruals predict high subsequent sales growth but a long-lasting drop in both profits and profitability. Accruals also predict an increase in future competition, suggesting that accruals are correlated with abnormally high-and, in equilibrium, transitory-true profitability that attracts new entrants to the industry. Overall, the predictive power of accruals is better explained by product-market effects than by measurement error in accruals or diminishing returns from investment. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keyword:
Accruals
Earnings
Persistence
Measurement error
Reversals
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