Wildfires on a changing planet

Olivia Haas

doi:10.1038/s41467-025-68176-4

2026-02-12

Olivia Haas *

I. Colin Prentice

Sandy P. Harrison

DOI：10.1038/s41467-025-68176-4

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摘要

En 中文

地球上的野火分布将随着气候、土地利用和植被的变化而改变。我们使用全球经验模型（包括过火面积、火势大小和火势强度）来探究在~1.5和3-4 °C的增温情景下，以“中间道路”未来社会经济条件为背景的野火未来演变路径。即使在~1.5 °C的增温条件下，我们仍发现到21世纪末野火模式将发生改变：受人类活动变化驱动，热带地区过火面积减少，但受气候和CO2变化驱动，温带地区将出现更大规模且更强烈的野火。在低气候减缓情景下，各类植被覆盖区域的过火面积大幅增加，抵消了当前的全球下降趋势。这些发现表明，即使在雄心勃勃的气候减缓措施下，现行的防火政策在许多地区仍将失效，而依赖扩大森林面积的减缓方案若未考虑野火风险将不切实际。气候和土地利用变化将重新分配全球的火情分布。温带地区预计将出现更大规模、更频繁且更强烈的野火，而在最高增温程度下，人类驱动的火情活动下降趋势将被逆转。

Keyword:

Climate sciences

Ecology

Geography

Science

Humanities and Social Sciences

multidisciplinary

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期刊

Nature Communications

IF:

15.7

论文数:

9.4W

被引数:

91.2W

机构

imperial college london

学者数:

9.9K

论文数: 4.4K

被引数: 0

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