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Zero emissions commitment depends on warming level

delete2026-11-03
delete0
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OA
AI
L
Laura Gibbs *
C
Chris Jones

Colin Jones
T
Timothy Andrews
S
Spencer Liddicoat
A
A. Wiltshire
E
Eddy Robertson
R
Richard G. Williams
L
L. de Mora
J
Jeremy Walton
A
Andrea J. Dittus
R
Ranjini Swaminathan
P
Paulo Ceppi
R
Robin S. Smith
S
Steven T. Rumbold
DOI：10.1038/s41558-026-02776-wdelete
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摘要

摘要

En 中文
当人为CO2排放停止时，全球温度不会立即稳定。由此产生的全球温度变化，即零排放承诺，是碳预算评估和理解全球变暖可逆性的核心，但其对先前变暖水平的依赖性尚不清楚。在此，我们使用UK地球系统模型（UKESM1.2）在1.5～5 K的全球变暖水平下进行零排放模拟，表明零排放承诺在2 K以下接近零，但在更高变暖水平下变为正值，约150年后达到0.4～0.6 K。这种依赖性表明，随着峰值温度的升高，稳定或逆转变暖将变得越来越困难。我们确定了这种行为背后的机制：来自更强辐射不平衡的变暖和碳汇减弱，由饱和陆地碳吸收和CO2吸收的辐射影响在更高背景CO2浓度下减弱所驱动。因此，更高的峰值变暖使地球承诺额外的变暖，限制了温度超调的可逆性。排放停止后发生的全球温度变化预计接近零。在此，作者使用模型模拟表明，这种零排放承诺取决于排放停止时的变暖水平，且在更高变暖水平下可能为正值。

期刊

Nature Climate Change 封面图
Nature Climate Change
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27.1
论文数:
4.4K
被引数:
6.2W

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M
met office hadley centre
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37
论文数: 23
被引数: 3
P
Plymouth Marine Laboratory
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65
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被引数: 13
U
University of Liverpool
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1.2K
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被引数: 175
U
University of Reading
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415
论文数: 225
被引数: 64
N
national centre for atmospheric science
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4
论文数: 2
被引数: 0
I
imperial college london
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3.2K
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被引数: 724
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