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A Bayesian Inference and Machine Learning based Hybrid Intelligence Framework for Modelling and Assessing Community Resilience under Uncertainty
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DOI：10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106251.png)
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Abstract
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Community resilience depicts a community's capacity to efficiently be prepared for, respond to and recover from disruptions while minimizing long-term impacts on social, economic, and environmental well-being. Given that the frequency and intensity of disruptions, such as natural hazards and economic shocks, have been steadily increasing, assessing and enhancing community resilience has become of paramount importance than ever. To that end, this study addresses critical gaps in literature by modelling and assessing community resilience through a machine learning integrated Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) approach. Khulna city, which is a coastal city of Bangladesh, is considered as a testing ground to assess the community resilience of this study. The methodology integrates a survey-based data-driven approach anchored in a probabilistic BBN model, which allows exploring complex interdependence among different factors of community resilience and facilitates the examination of dynamic scenarios to provide robust means to analyze the conditional relationship, assess uncertainties and offer insight into the resilience-building process within communities. The study finds out that governance and economic stability are the most influential factors in strengthening community resilience, while societal and environmental factors also emerge as highly significant determinants. Further, a set of advanced analyses, such as sensitivity and scenario-based analyses, provides significant insights on how targeted improvements in these areas can lead to substantial gains in overall community resilience by providing a nuanced understanding of how changes in one factor affect others. The findings contribute to academic discourse by exploring resilience modeling, guide policymakers in prioritizing interventions and provide practitioners with actionable strategies for strengthening community resilience.
Keywords:
Community Resilience
Bayesian Belief Network (BBN)
Probabilistic Modeling
Unsupervised Machine Learning
Resilience Assessment.
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