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A structured war-gaming framework for managing extreme risks
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DOI：10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.05.004.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Extreme risks are challenging to learn from, prepare for and protect against, and they invite the development of new approaches to complement existing methods of risk management. We describe a systematic ex ante approach to support the strategic preparedness of risk management and apply it to a biosecurity case study. Our framework integrates a war-game model and a structured decision making approach. The model provides interactive maps that help stakeholders in visualizing the economic impacts of the extreme risk under different management scenarios, and it facilitates adaptive management by translating science-based results into stakeholder perspectives. The structured decision making approach not only offers an analytical structure to organize the multiple objectives of risk management, but also functions as a platform for group deliberation among alternative courses of management action with uncertain consequences. We found that this integration helped stakeholders develop a better understanding of the complexities and interconnectedness of the extreme risk management and reached a consensus regarding the most preferred management option. Crown Copyright (C) 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords:
Risk planning systems
Multi-criteria decision analysis
Public participation
Scenario analysis
Plant biosecurity
Game with a purpose
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