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A study on the impact of trade policy uncertainty on the resilience of agricultural enterprise value chains
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DOI：10.3389/fsufs.2026.1857340.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
IntroductionTrade policy uncertainty poses significant challenges to enhancing the resilience of agricultural enterprise value chains. Understanding how such uncertainty affects value chain resilience is crucial for formulating effective policy responses in an increasingly volatile global trade environment.MethodsUsing panel data from Chinese agricultural listed companies spanning 2007 to 2016; this study employs a double machine learning method for empirical analysis to systematically examine the impact of trade policy uncertainty on the resilience of agricultural enterprise value chains.ResultsThe research demonstrates that trade policy uncertainty significantly diminishes the resilience of these value chains. The negative effects are more pronounced in state-owned enterprises; firms with weak financing capabilities; low levels of digitalization; limited government subsidies; and high carbon intensity.Discussion and conclusionMechanism analysis reveals that trade policy uncertainty undermines the resilience of global value chains by suppressing enterprise innovation and exacerbating information asymmetry. These findings provide valuable insights for scientifically enhancing the resilience of Chinese agricultural enterprises within global value chains and offer a theoretical foundation and practical guidance for policy formulation amid the current complex and ever-changing trade environment.
Keywords:
information asymmetry
double machine learning method
global value chain resilience
level of innovation
trade policy uncertainty
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